May 31, 2007 (From the CalCars-News archive)
CalCars-News
This posting originally appeared at CalCars-News, our newsletter of breaking CalCars and plug-in hybrid news.
View the original posting here.
we're again in catch-up mode for CalCars-News.
Below we report on the following news from Toyota:
1. A Reuters report that Toyota will make as much money selling
hybrids as non-hybrids in 2010. And, equally important, in 2020, all
of its cars will be hybrids. This story has been picked up broadly.
It's not a direct quote, but it is very important confirmation of last
year's controversial but prescient Alliance Bernstein analysis
<http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/493.html>, that 85% of new cars
and 72% of the entire global automobile fleet in 2030 will be HEV or
PHEV. The report also discusses new electric battery ventures by
Nissan and Mitsubishi that could increase the options available to
manufacturers of hybrids and all plug-in cars. (The Reuters report
goes on to quote Executive VP Takimoto saying that PHEVs are many
years away.)
2. A detailed report from the May 7 Cascadia Conference in Redmond,
WA, on the presentation by Bill Reinert, National Manager, Advanced
Technologies Group, Toyota Motor Sales USA, which outlines many of the
reasons why Toyota is in the same boat as GM on PHEVs: committed to
production, but not until the company can be sure that even the first
batteries for the first cars will last the lifetime of the car.
(Reinert was introduced by a Washington State Toyota dealer who
announced that the Prius is the highest selling car in the Pacific
Northwest.)
3. Toyota North America President Jim Press predicting that our
children will drive multi-fuel PHEVs ten years from now.
4. Excerpts from an interview with the company's national service
technology manager, Gary E. Smithl, about lithium batteries published
on the Toyota website ,
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
1. Toyota says hybrid cost premium to disappear
By Chang-Ran Kim, Asia auto correspondent
http://africa.reuters.com/instrument/gan.php?i=14154875
TOYOTA CITY, Japan, May 10 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp. expects to
cut costs for hybrid cars enough to be able to make as much money on
them as it does on conventional gasoline cars by around 2010, a top
executive said on Thursday.
Japan's top automaker has been keen to see the fuel-saving powertrain
enter the mainstream since launching the Prius, the world's first
hybrid car, in 1997, but sales have come at the expense of
profitability given their high production costs.
But Masatami Takimoto, executive vice president in charge of
powertrain development, said cost-cutting efforts on the system's
motor, battery and inverter were bearing fruit, and the cost structure
would improve drastically by the time Toyota reaches its sales goal of
one million hybrids annually in 2010 or soon after.
"By then, we expect margins to be equal to gasoline cars," he told
Reuters in an interview at Toyota's headquarters in Toyota City,
central Japan.
If it succeeds, Toyota, on its way to becoming the world's biggest
carmaker, will be removing the main hurdle to cost-competitiveness for
the hybrid -- the expense of the powertrain, which twins a
conventional engine with an electric motor. It will also likely widen
its sales lead as more consumers seek better mileage amid rising fuel
costs.
Data this week showed U.S. gasoline prices at an all-time high above
$3 a gallon, and Takimoto said he expected energy prices to continue
rising.
Toyota likely achieved cumulative hybrid sales of one million units
this month, having moved 998,900 by the end of April. By 2020,
Takimoto said he expected hybrids to become the standard drivetrain
and account for "100 percent" of Toyota's vehicles.
<snip>
BATTERY BREAKTHROUGH
Eager to match Toyota's green image, domestic rival Nissan Motor Co.
announced plans last month to form a joint venture with electronics
giant NEC Corp. to mass-produce lithium-ion batteries to be used in
environmentally friendly vehicles such as hybrids and plug-in hybrid cars.
Mitsubishi Motors Corp. followed this week with a similar plan,
partnering GS Yuasa Corp. and Mitsubishi Corp.. Both ventures want
their batteries to become the de facto standard for the auto industry.
Takimoto said Toyota had been approached by both parties as well as
many other battery makers, but dismissed their products as "unusable"
due to their low energy density.
"Our battery is still superior," he said. He added that plug-in
hybrids, which can be recharged through an electric socket, were still
years away from practical application and pure electric vehicles even
further out because even with a trunk full of rechargeable batteries,
they would have a cruising range of just 60 km (37 miles).
<snip>
See our report on an earlier speech by Masatmai Takimoto
<http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/571.html>.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
2. Here's our long report on Toyota's speech by Bill Reinert at the
Cascadia Conference in Redmond, WA on May 7, 2007, "Jump Start to a
Secure, Clean Energy Future," which we reported briefly on at
http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/759.html>. We took careful notes
and reviewed the audio and video because we believe it's very
important to understand exactly what Toyota is saying so we can
develop responses to all its concerns!
Introducing Toyota's Bill Reinert was Buzz Rodland, owner of Rodland
Toyota of Everett, past chairman of the American International
Automobile Dealers Association. Rodland announced that after eight
years during which the #1 selling car in Pacific Northwest was the
Toyota Camry, now, in that five-state area, the Prius is the #1
selling car.
Bill Reinert is National Manager, Advanced Technologies Group, Toyota
Motor Sales USA. (He appeared memorably him in the film, "Who Killed
the Electric Car.") Reinert gave a very thoughtful and wide-ranging
presentation, "35 steps toward Sustainable Mobility." You could print
out the presentation from
http://www.discovery.org/scripts/viewDB/filesDB-download.php?command=download&id\
=1345>
(PDF-2MB), then view the video stream of Reinert's talk at
<http://www.tvw.org/MediaPlayer/Archived/WME.cfm?EVNum=2007050025A&TYPE=V>
(fast forward about halfway to get to him.) .
Reinert covered the declining availability of oil and the greenhouse
gas and energy intensity tradeoffs between various fuels and gave a
good picture of the priorities of the company.
Mostly he came prepared to talk about plug-in hybrids: he spent almost
half of his time on PHEVs. Slide 20 began by stating "Toyota's Basic
Philosophy: "Do what we can 'today for tomorrow.' Develop innovative
technologies for the future while continuously improving the
mainstream technologies of today." (At this point, given what we've
been saying about not making the perfect the enemy of the good, we had
to wish that Toyota truly would begin immediately with what it
understands is its future!)
Reinert described Toyota's sequence of goals as clean gasoline
emissions, energy diversity and CO2 emissions, though he said they are
working on them in parallel. In slide 23, he predicted a continuation
of the previous 30% improvement for each Prius generation, saying,
"you can do the math for the next generation in 2008-2009." Preparing
the groundwork for the reasons Toyota won't build PHEVs now, he said
"the average customer" won't accept compromises.
He presented two major types of PHEVs: first, ones with all-electric
range, citing the Volt and "some of the conversions." He then
confirmed the company is working on "blended" PHEVs, where battery
power covers the most inefficient part of the internal combustion
engine's operation, which he said would enable them to extend the
battery's life. (This topic will become increasingly important. We
hope Toyota will plan blended hybrids with an all-electric low-speed
capability, as do all current Prius conversions. Even people who love
that we can get 100+MPG on the highway are most excited by the silent,
all-electric driving under 35 MPH. While PHEV advocates have no
absolute position about blended hybrids, we worry that if Toyota
introduces PHEVs that have NO electric-only mode, even at low speeds,
this could set the stage for a consumer disappointment and product
failure. Especially if Toyota is competing with the GM Volt, drivers
will want to be able to make at least their slow and short
neighborhood trips without using any gasoline. Fortunately, Toyota's
Hybrid Synergy Drive is designed to enable an EV mode.)
Reinert's slide 28 illustrated the best features of different vehicle
types, interpolating the PHEV into a chart that didn't include them as
a category, but showing they could have the best combination of
features. He complimented the conference on Cascadia's PHEV Briefing
Book" saying it was "really good, Felix must have helped write that."
(Actually, "Electrify Transportation," published in January 2007, was
written by Richard Feldman, formerly at the Apollo Alliance, now at
the Seattle Mayor's office, and Patrick Mazaza from Climate
Solutions.) Slide 30, as in other reports, misleadingly compared
average CO2 numbers for PHEVs by country against hybrids instead of
against all-gasoline cars. This perpetuates the assumption that we're
building cars that will all run on today's energy mix. As our regional
and national energy supply increasingly derives from renewable
sources, today's unquestioned greenhouse gas superiority of PHEVs over
gasoline cars will increasingly leave behind hybrids that can't plug in.
On batteries, he showed in slide 32 how time and cost increases as
development and testing progresses from cell to modules to full packs
to real-world experience. Citing issues of safety, durability
(batteries that last the life of vehicle) and the need for reliability
at least equal to nickel-metal hydride batteries, plus cost, and
end-of-life recycling, he confirmed that Toyota intends to get
experience with lithium-ion batteries in hybrids before it builds
PHEVs. (He did not acknowledge the new factor of vehicle-to-grid both
in economic issues and in secondary uses for older batteries replacing
recycling.)
Saying we can get there, but it will long and tough, Reinert presented
statements in slide 33 by analyst Menachem Anderman indicating that
batteries for PHEVs could be many years away. (If we had tracked
Anderman's statements in recent years the way we have those of
carmakers, we'd all see that he has already retreated from unequivocal
rejection of PHEVs to "10 years away;" he will probably be playing
catch-up even as the first PHEVs arrive.) Reinert's slide 34 urged a
unified approach between government and manufacturers on battery
research, testing and standards. He concluded by noting pointedly that
political choices will have to be made between energy sources that
improve energy security, like coal, and ones that address climate change.
In the Q&A, he repeated that "renewable" is not sustainable. (This
issue is moving to center stage in energy policy discussions:
"alternative fuels" can include disastrous solutions such as oil from
coal or tar sands. "Renewable" can include ethanol from corn, which
has only a small positive energy balance, raises the price of food,
and uses immense amounts of water. "Sustainable" is the most useful
metric.)
When asked, are batteries ready yet, he said flat-out "no." He cited
lifecycle challenges for deep-discharging PHEV batteries. He said he
was "not so concerned about cost challenges: we might be able to
internalize that." (In other words, Toyota could absorb initial high
internal costs for batteries before large-scale production.) But most
importantly, he insisted, "We need to give you all the batteries that
you would expect to get in a car, that's 100,000 or 150,000 miles.
Felix and I might differ on that -- Felix and I were talking the other
day -- but we don't expect the battery and the battery maintenance to
be part of the ownership cost of your car. It's not in today's Prius
and we wouldn't expect that in the future. (We've often addressed this
issue; for our response, see the next CalCars posting: our testimony
to the Air Resources Board.)
In response to a question about the combination of solar rooftop
charging and plug-in hybrids (displacing gasoline is an especially
good way to offset the cost of photovoltaics), he said it was not
practical in the Pacific Northwest -- the cost-performance would not
be high enough.
In the final question, by Steve Lough of the Seattle Electric Auto
Association, when asked why the company would not consider using
nickel-metal hydride batteries (given that those in the Toyota RAV4
EVs have lasted over 100,000 miles), he said that because of NiMH's
lower energy density, the size of the batteries means they couldn't be
packaged to allow crush space and room for fold-down seats and spare
tires. He said "believe me, it's an easier deal; if we could have done
it, we would have done it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
3. Toyota North America President Jim Press says:
Ten years from now, your children will be driving a plug-in hybrid
powered by diesel, ethanol or blended fuel. My grandchildren will
drive plug-in hybrids powered by hydrogen and fuel cells.
<http://www.autoobserver.com/2007/04/exclusive_oneon.html> Published
April 27, 2007
This is from an Exclusive One-on-One Interview by Michelle Krebs,
veteran automotive-industry authority, interviewing Toyota North
America President Jim Press, who a year ago he became the first
American to head Toyota Motor North America and in April was named the
first non-Japanese to the Toyota Motor Corp. Board of Directors. The
entire interview is worth reading!
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
4. Here's the second half of an informative interview with a Toyota
executive about lithium battery technology.
http://www.toyota.com/html/dyncon/2007/april/battery.html
Toyota's Hybrid Synergy View Newsletter, April 2007
Lithium Ion Likely to Power Hybrids of the Future
Toyota Motor Corporation indicated recently that the company would
migrate to lithium ion battery technology for its future hybrid
vehicles. Hybrid Synergy View visited with Gary E. Smith, national
service technology manager at Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc., about
lithium ion technology.
Q: Would arrays of off-the-shelf consumer-type lithium batteries work
for this purpose?
GS: It's possible. However, that is a significant compromise. Some of
the earliest non-U.S.-specification Prius cars had racks of
rechargeable D batteries, the kind you'd use in a flashlight. These
were bulky and were not optimized for the specific use case. So the
battery makers optimized the design and formed them into wafer-style
packs/collections that make up today's Prius battery packs. I'm sure
the lithium ion packs that the battery makers come up with for hybrid
cars will likewise be optimized for the special demands that come with
automotive use.
Q: Are there important differences between lithium ion and lithium ion
polymer batteries?
GS: Lithium ion batteries contain a gelatinous material; lithium ion
polymer batteries -- usually called lithium polymer -- have the
lithium ions deposited on a hard, polymer material. The particular
"recipe" that the battery makers will select for hybrid traction
batteries will depend on the battery's configuration, placement and
desired service life as well as on the demands of constant charging
and recharging.
Q: How would today's Prius have to be changed to accommodate lithium
ion batteries?
GS: The difference would be mainly in the battery management system
that regulates the charging and discharging processes.
Q: How do the costs compare to nickel-metal hydride batteries?
GS: I would expect the first lithium ion traction batteries to be more
expensive than today's nickel-metal hydride types, but when they get
into large-scale production, their costs will continue to get lower.
Q: Would lithium ion batteries be required if Toyota develops a
plug-in hybrid?
GS: If not required, certainly desirable. The same energy density
advantages would be especially beneficial to plug-ins, which would
impose greater demands during all-electric range.
Q: Is lithium ion the solution?
GS: Lithium is certainly what's next in this type of energy storage. I
am optimistic that lithium will offer compelling advantages in weight,
size, cost and range that will have a positive effect on the ownership
experience in future hybrids, plug-ins or electric vehicles.
