ACEEE Blows Hot & Cold on PHEVs; Christian Science Monitor Reports
Sep 24, 2006 (From the CalCars-News archive)

The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy has just
released a report on the benefits of PHEVs. In the accompanying press
release, co-author Theresa Langer says, "Plug-ins represent a major
step toward the electrification of the transportation sector, a
transition that has tremendous potential to help solve some big problems."

Unlike most other reports, this one compares PHEVs not to internal
combustion engine (ICE) cars, but to today's (part-of-the-way-there
non-plug-in) hybrids. It finds benefits even in this comparison that
analysts may see as significant or minor. We're expecting other
reports this fall to go far in answering the remaining objections
about how much better hybrids are than ICE cars and hybrids, but
these findings of a 15% CO2 reduction compared to a hybrid on today's
national (half-coal) grid, are already helpful. Significantly, this
report comes from a group that has reserved judgment on PHEVs, and
whose work has been cited by some analysts and organizations that
remain skeptical about electric transportation. (Many are reluctant
to factor in the likelihood that the power grid will get cleaner as
renewable portfolio standards and other requirements emerge --
leading to the point that, while ICE cars get dirtier as they get
older, electric cars get cleaner, because electricity gets cleaner.)

The report cautions against overselling PHEVs' benefits, especially
the 100+MPG message. PHEV advocates make serious efforts to
communicate whenever possible that it's "100+MPG of gasoline, plus
electricity."). While it is not yet possible to predict the
performance of production PHEVs, based on my own daily experience, it
appears the report underestimates what's possible from driving at
"mixed speeds" -- at both mid-range 35-55 MPH and highway speeds.

In contrast to co-author James Kliesch's comment that "
'electric-then-gasoline' depiction of plug-in operation is not
realistic and has contributed to overstatements of the fuel savings
potential of plug-ins in the popular media," here's what I've been
getting in "mixed-mode" driving: Since filling my car 13 days ago,
I've driven 538.86 miles on 4.158 gallons, achieving 129.5 MPG. And
at <http://www.calcars.org/photos.html> you can see a photograph
taken September 1 showing I had driven 949.75 miles on 9.365 gallons,
achieving 101.4 miles. (This even included a 175-mile round-trip from
the Bay Area to Sacramento where I drove mostly as standard hybrid.)
We'll have more data soon...

The chart cited in the Christian Science Monitor news story that
follows the press release below includes ACEEE data showing a $3,500
long-term incremental cost for a 40-mile all-electric range battery,
which matches up to statements by PHEV scientists, economists and
advocates. (The ACEEE's press release contains a link to the full
report in PDF format.)

PRESS RELEASE
Plug-Ins Promising -- But Better Batteries, Cleaner Power Plants Essential

Washington, D.C. (September 21, 2006): Plug-in hybrid vehicles could
contribute greatly to reducing automobile oil consumption and
emissions, but reaching those goals requires major progress in key
areas. According to a report released today by the American Council
for an Energy-Efficient Economy, the environmental and economic
appeal of plug-in hybrid vehicles will depend heavily upon cleaner
power sources and further battery advances. The report, "Plug-In
Hybrids: An Environmental and Economic Outlook," examines the
benefits of plug-ins relative to today's hybrids. It finds that
greenhouse gas emissions reductions associated with a plug-in powered
by today's electric grid would be about 15% on average across the
nation, ranging from 32% using California electricity to zero using
Upper Midwest electricity.

Plug-ins' oil savings could be quite large. Battery size and cost
rise steeply with the amount of fuel savings, however, suggesting
that plug-ins with modest electric-only range will appear
first. According to report co-author James Kliesch, the
"electric-then-gasoline" depiction of plug-in operation is not
realistic and has contributed to overstatements of the fuel savings
potential of plug-ins in the popular media. "Achieving adequate
battery lifetimes and minimizing battery costs will require a vehicle
control logic that turns on the internal combustion engine when extra
power is needed, even within the 'electric-only' range of the
vehicle," said Kliesch. The ACEEE report estimates fuel savings
relative to today's hybrids of 30% for a plug-in with a 20-mile
electric-only range and 50% for a 40-mile range.

With high volumes and a drop in nickel prices, the cost of the
nickel-metal hydride batteries used in hybrids at present could fall
quite dramatically. To reach an appropriate balance of size, weight,
and power for a long-range plug-in, however, researchers' bets are on
lithium-ion batteries, which still need technological breakthroughs
to reach commercial production for plug-in applications. Projections
of long-term costs for plug-in batteries imply that the incremental
cost of a plug-in could match that of a hybrid today.

"Plug-ins represent a major step toward the electrification of the
transportation sector, a transition that has tremendous potential to
help solve some big problems," said report co-author Therese Langer.
"But realizing this potential means maintaining an all-out effort on
advanced batteries, cleaning up electric power generators, and
adopting policies that drive efficiency technologies by requiring a
sustained ramp-up of average fuel economy."

"Plug-In Hybrids: An Environmental and Economic Outlook" is available
for free download at
<http://aceee.org/pubs/t061.pdf>http://aceee.org/pubs/t061.pdf or a
hard copy can be purchased for $16 plus $5 postage and handling from
ACEEE Publications, 1001 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 801,
Washington, D.C. 20036-5525, phone: 202-429-0063, fax: 202-429-0193,
e-mail: aceee_publications@....

The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy is an
independent, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing energy
efficiency as a means of promoting both economic prosperity and
environmental protection. For information about ACEEE and its
programs, publications, and conferences, visit
<http://aceee.org>http://aceee.org.

Contact: Jim Kliesch, 202-429-8873, x721
Therese Langer, 202-429-8873, x724
Media Contact: Glee Murray, 202-429-0063


A reality check on plug-in hybrids
Vehicles that draw power from the electricity grid offer uneven
benefits, a new study finds.
By Mark Clayton | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the September 25, 2006 edition
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0925/p03s02-usgn.html

There are hybrid vehicles, whose gasoline/electric engines get great
mileage. And then there are "plug-in" hybrids, only about a dozen of
them in the US, which have been modified to store more electricity in
beefier batteries by plugging in at night to the electricity grid.

Felix Kramer's "plug-in" Toyota Prius gets about double the mileage
of a conventional Prius - about 100 miles per gallon. To him, it is
the holy grail of cars, zapping pollution, oil imports, and high pump
prices all at once.

So, should the whole country jump on the band wagon?

A groundbreaking study released last week sounds a cautionary note to
the consumer. Plug-ins do burn less gasoline than regular hybrids -
and gobs less than gasoline-only vehicles - but the high cost of
their bigger battery packs will probably neutralize even significant
savings at the pump, according to a report by the American Council
for an Energy-Efficient America (ACEEE).

The study is the first to compare the performance - and the costs -
of two hybrid technologies: the conventional versus the plug-in. It
comes even as President Bush, energy-security hawks, and many
environmentalists are talking up plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles
(PHEVs). Dozens of cities, too, have signed on to promote a new
Plug-in Partners program, and Toyota and other automakers say they're
working on the technology.

"We want government policy based on reality, not overstating what
[plug-in technology] can achieve and when," says report coauthor
Therese Langer, ACEEE's transportation program director. "We don't
want what happened with the hydrogen hype to happen with plug-in
hybrids, too," she adds, referring to optimistic assessments of a
timetable for shifting to a hydrogen-powered vehicle fleet.

Cleaner skies, in some places

Environmental impacts of PHEV technology, for instance, would vary
dramatically by region - benefiting some areas but not others, the
report found.

For a plug-in owner in California, where most electricity on the grid
is generated by low-pollution facilities, driving a PHEV might cut
emissions of carbon dioxide by one-third compared with driving a
regular hybrid.

But if the same PHEV were charged in the Midwest, where coal-fired
power plants supply the electricity, reduction of CO2 emissions would
be nil. Nitrous-oxide emissions (which form smog) would fall
slightly, but sulfur-dioxide emissions (which contribute to acid
rain) would quadruple.

Still, environmental gains are possible.

Plug-ins would chop CO2 emissions by 15 percent on a national
average, compared with conventional hybrid cars, the ACEEE report
found. At the same time, the plug-in would emit 157 percent more
sulfur-dioxide pollution. The need, plug-in proponents say, is for
policies that would clean up the electricity grid so that PHEV
technology supplies cleaner skies along with energy independence.

Pricey batteries

The cost of nickel-metal hybrid batteries may also limit the appeal
of plug-in hybrids - at least in the short run.

Today's conventional hybrids command a premium price - $2,000 to
$4,000 more than their nonhybrid counterparts - and their owners will
recover that extra cost in about three years, assuming $3-a-gallon
gasoline and 12,000 miles a year of driving, the report found. (Graphic)

For the plug-in, the payback period is longer - 6.4 years for a
vehicle that can travel 40 miles exclusively on stored electricity -
even under the more optimistic scenario in which battery prices fall
sharply, the ACEEE report estimates.

Others, however, say that PHEV technology is crucial for America's
energy security and that mass production will bring battery prices down.

"This is an important technology from an energy-security standpoint,"
says Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis
of Global Security, a Washington-based energy-security think tank.

Even so, he agrees that expectations have become a bit overheated.
"It's true this technology isn't going to be suitable for everyone," he says,

Felix Kramer's souped-up Prius

As for Mr. Kramer, who is apparently the first of about a dozen
people nationwide to have acquired a plug-in hybrid Toyota Prius, the
ACEEE report gives him not a moment's pause. Cofounder of
CalCars.org, a group promoting plug-in technology, he keeps close
track of his mileage and now commutes to work powered almost solely
by stored electricity. On a recent 450-mile run, at mixed speeds and
terrain, he got 125 miles to the gallon.

Now he's installed solar panels on his car's roof to charge the
battery and lower his costs even further.

"In the real world, battery reliability [will improve] and costs are
going to come down fast," he says. "My real-world experience tells me
they're understating the benefit. I'm doing a lot better than the report."