Reuters: automakers re-focus on near term
Nov 8, 2005 (From the CalCars-News archive)

Missed this one until now...notes some important trends!

Debate over Clean Car Technology Rages On
10.20.05

By Chang-Ran Kim, Reuters and Michael Shields, Reuters

CHIBA, Japan (Reuters)—The debate over the best medium-term solution for
cleaner cars looks set to lengthen as auto executives in Japan for the
Tokyo Motor Show this week discussed more, not fewer, options for weaning
cars off oil.

The race to develop more fuel-efficient and less polluting cars has picked
up pace as gas prices, exacerbated by a series of devastating hurricanes in
the United States, hit record levels this year and as worries heighten over
the impact of global warming on climate patterns.

Most auto makers agree that fuel-cell cars powered by hydrogen produced
with renewable energy sources are the end game since they would rely on no
fossil fuels and emit only pure water. But most said the technology was at
least a decade away.

"The only breakthrough technology is fuel cell because this is the one that
guarantees you are out of oil dependency," Carlos Ghosn, who heads both
France's Renault SA and Japanese partner Nissan Motor Co., told reporters
this week.

"But this will take a very long time."

In the meantime, auto makers are caught in a war of words over what the
best medium-term answer is, adding more possibilities such as dual-fuel
engines, "plug-in" electric hybrids, diesel hybrids, and even the
once-forsaken pure electric vehicles in a bid to gain an edge over their
rivals.

Late to join the hybrid party, many European car makers touted the
advantages of clean diesel systems, which they argued cost less and got
better mileage than gasoline-electric hybrids depending on driving habits.

"Despite the big public debate right now, it will just be a niche
technology," BMW AG Chief Executive Helmut Panke said, forecasting hybrids
to account for no more than 5 percent of all cars in the long term.

German peer Volkswagen AG agreed that much of the hype around hybrids was
unwarranted, suggesting instead that the developing synthetic fuels could
prove more effective in cleaning tail-pipe emissions, especially when used
to power diesel engines.

"We need alternative energy sources, not just improvement in powertrain,"
Research Director Wolfgang Steiger said.

He added the know-how in processing synthetic fuels, which are extracted or
fabricated from solid earth materials rich in hydrocarbons, could come in
handy for hydrogen production when fuel-cell vehicles arrive in earnest.

Setback for Fuel Cells

On the other hand, Toyota Motor Corp. is eager for hybrids to take off,
adding the powertrain option on more models. Among them will be the Lexus
LS flagship sedan, a hybrid concept of which was unveiled at the auto show
on Thursday.

In addition to working on hybrid and fuel-cell technology, other Japanese
auto makers such as Honda Motor Co. and Nissan are scrambling to improve
control systems on internal combustion engines to achieve better fuel economy.

"With all these possibilities on the horizon, it's tough to predict what
the future is going to hold," Ford Motor Co. Director Mary Ann Wright said.

"But we believe there are going to be many solutions, and that's why we're
taking a portfolio approach."

Larry Burns, vice president of research and development at General Motors
Corp., said this proliferation of powertrains was holding back progress in
fuel-cell technology as auto makers stretch their limited resources thin
and wide.

"I think we need to think hard about making the automobile dramatically
simpler with hydrogen and fuel cells," Burns told Reuters, noting that a
fuel-cell propulsion system had one-tenth as many moving parts as an
internal combustion engine.

While skeptics of fuel-cell vehicles often bring up high infrastructure
costs, GM, one of the most vocal proponents of the technology, said it
would only take $10 billion to $15 billion to make hydrogen available to 70
percent of the U.S. population.

GM expects to develop a fuel-cell propulsion system that would be at least
as functional and affordable as today's gasoline engines by 2010.

The world's biggest car maker won't say when it would begin mass-producing
the vehicles, but Burns said that if 500,000 to 1 million were built, they
would "cost no more than a gasoline car."

At the Tokyo Motor Show, GM is displaying its Sequel concept, the only
fuel-cell car in the world that can run 300 miles (483 km) between refueling.

DaimlerChrysler AG, another major player in the field, debuted a prototype
car that can run either on fuel cells or on a lithium ion battery and can
crank out 115 horsepower. Fully charged, the family sized car has a range
of 400 km.

"It's going to take collaboration to transform the industry," Burns said.

"The world is on a trajectory where it's becoming even more urgent to get
this done, whether it's 9/11, the Iraq war, the explosive growth of China's
economy or hurricanes that expose the vulnerability of energy infrastructures.

"We need to move faster rather than slower."